Investing
My investing notebook.
Great companies aren’t always great investments. Most of these are excellent businesses. The harder question is what the price already assumes. As Ben Graham put it, in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. Price is what you pay; value is what you get.
The companies
- 01MicrosoftNasdaq · MSFTStrong moatA widening software moat funds the AI build. The price needs Azure at 25% a year for ten years; I expect 18%.Price $530.14Base $367Safety below $275
- 02NVIDIANasdaq · NVDAStrong moatSells most of the world's AI compute. The price needs the FY2028 plan on time; I expect it six months late, then one flat-to-down year.Price $204.64Base $195Safety below $106
- 03MGM ResortsNYSE · MGMCan be disruptedA Las Vegas tenant with a Macau license to 2032. The price needs profit before rent to grow 0.7% a year; I expect 2%.Price $29.96Base $38Safety below $25
- 04Berkshire HathawayNYSE · BRK.BStrong moatMore than half cash and stocks. The price pays 17.8 times earnings for the businesses; my base is 12.3.Price $542.19Base $467Safety below $350
- 05AMDNasdaq · AMDCan be disruptedThe price needs free cash flow to grow 33% a year for ten years, more than my bull case.Price $504.80Base $194Safety below $81
- 06ASMLEuronext Amsterdam · ASMLStrong moatOnly maker of EUV chip machines; €1,407 sits 25% above my €1,123 base value.Price €1,407.20Base €1,123Safety below €764
- 07AlphabetNasdaq · GOOGLStrong moatSearch holds 90% and Cloud grew 103%, but equipment takes 89% of cash flow. The price needs 16% growth; my base is 12%.Price $283.82Base $198Safety below $139
- 08AmazonNasdaq · AMZNStrong moatAWS earns 58% of the profit. The price needs it to grow 28% a year for ten years; my base case is 18%.Price $243.79Base $166Safety below $108
- 09American ExpressNYSE · AXPStrong moatRewards rose 10.5 points of revenue, salaries and other expense fell 9.3, so the margin fell 1.3; the price needs 6.2% growth.Price $323.71Base $324Safety below $227
- 10BroadcomNasdaq · AVGOStrong moatCustom AI silicon at scale; the price needs $227B of FY2028 AI revenue, against my $167B.Price $326.08Base $261Safety below $126
- 11LVMHEuronext Paris · MCStrong moatOne group earns 74% of profit, down 22% since 2023. The price needs 5.8% cash growth a year; I model 5.4%.Price €383.85Base €374Safety below €262
- 12MastercardNYSE · MAStrong moatServices gave 79% of the gain per $100 of volume. The price needs 9.3% growth for 15 years; my base case, 8.3%.Price $635.70Base $561Safety below $421
- 13PalantirNasdaq · PLTRStrong moatRevenue up 79% at a 43% operating margin. The price needs $122B of revenue in year ten; my base case has $53B.Price $184.11Base $83Safety below $58
- 14ProsusEuronext Amsterdam · PRXCan be disruptedThe market value is 19% below the Tencent stake alone, so the rest of the group is priced below zero.Price $38.18Base $49Safety below $32
- 15SnowflakeNYSE · SNOWCan be disruptedProduct revenue up 37%, stock pay 30% of revenue; the price needs 28% growth a year for nine years after year one.Price $306.08Base $128Safety below $96
- 16SpaceXNasdaq · SPCXStrong moatA rented AI gigawatt must earn $57.5B a year to support the price; the Anthropic contract pays $23.1B to $35.5B.Price $134.72Base $48Safety below $31
- 17TSMCTWSE · 2330Strong moatI value a TSMC share at NT$2,006. The Taiwan price is 18% above that and the ADR 40% above.Price NT$2,370.00Base NT$2,006Safety below NT$1,180
- 18TencentHKEX · 0700Strong moatAdvertising grew 22% on 2% more users. The price needs all-in capital spending to stay near 26% of revenue; I assume 17%.Price HK$383.60Base HK$508Safety below HK$355
- 19TeslaNasdaq · TSLACan be disruptedCars, energy and cash: $44 a share if margins recover. The price needs $600B of autonomy revenue; I model $70B.Price $403.30Base $65Safety below $46
- 20UberNYSE · UBERCan be disruptedA local network with $216B booked a year. The price needs 6.2% growth; I model 9.4%, and robotaxis set the margin.Price $65.74Base $86Safety below $60
- 21VisaNYSE · VStrong moatNet revenue per $100 up 27.0 to 29.8 cents since FY2023, mostly services; the price needs 8.3% growth for 15 years.Price $410.54Base $349Safety below $262
- 22MicronNasdaq · MUThin moatEvery memory maker is earning record margins at once. The price needs 61% as normal; the best year before FY2026 was 59%.Price $884.74Base $700Safety below $533
- 23Meta PlatformsNasdaq · METAStrong moatThe best ad business funds an $810B AI build. The price needs ads 2 points faster and capital 10% lower than I model.Price $614.99Base $439Safety below $340
- 24Eli LillyNYSE · LLYStrong moatOne molecule is 64% of revenue and its patent ends in 2036. The price needs 22% cash growth a year; I model 13%.Price $1,417.54Base $744Safety below $521
- 25SK hynixKRX · 000660Can be disruptedThree years of my base cash nearly equal the market value. After that the price needs only 2025’s owner cash.Price ₩1,418,000Base ₩2,067,000Safety below ₩1,479,000
- 26Arista NetworksNYSE · ANETStrong moatA 63% margin on Ethernet software, at 36 times 2027 earnings. The price needs $29B of owner cash in 2036; I model $14B.Price $168.86Base $101Safety below $62
- 27VertivNYSE · VRTCan be disruptedA very good business that needs little capital. The price needs growth 1.8 times my base, which tracks the company’s plan.Price $232.50Base $123Safety below $58
- 28GE VernovaNYSE · GEVStrong moatBooked into 2032 and paid up front, but the turbine market has crashed twice. The price needs a 2030s with no bust.Price $857.87Base $638Safety below $412
- 29Constellation EnergyNasdaq · CEGStrong moatA federal floor covers 2032. After that the price needs about $89 a MWh for open nuclear; forwards sit near $63 and I use $66.Price $262.38Base $218Safety below $184
- 30CamecoNYSE · CCJThin moatUranium alone is worth about $20 a share to me. The rest of the price needs Westinghouse near the reported US$50B.Price $76.91Base $39Safety below $17
- 31NetflixNasdaq · NFLXCan be disruptedHours grew 2% as revenue per hour rose 12%. At a flat 33% margin the price needs 8.5% growth for ten years.Price $62.08Base $76Safety below $56
- 32OracleNYSE · ORCLCan be disruptedS&P estimates half of a $664B backlog is one customer. The price needs $205B of FY2030 revenue; I model $190B.Price $130.67Base $122Safety below $70
- 33Spotify TechnologyNYSE · SPOTCan be disruptedMost of each euro goes to the labels. The price needs revenue per subscriber up 6% a year for a decade; I model under 4%.Price $593.44Base $516Safety below $413
- 34ServiceNowNYSE · NOWStrong moatSold off 27% in a day on one forecast. The business is excellent; seat loss to AI is the input no one can yet measure.Price $105.12Base $118Safety below $83
- 35ShopifyNasdaq · SHOPStrong moatShopify keeps 1.5 cents of each dollar sold, as in 2019. The price needs 23% volume growth for ten years; I model 15%.Price $157.49Base $94Safety below $66
- 36CrowdStrikeNasdaq · CRWDStrong moatThe price needs ARR up 36% a year for ten years. My base has 16%, and that already beats management's goal.Price $250.43Base $56Safety below $39
- 37CloudflareNYSE · NETStrong moatA fifth of the web and 36% growth, but no owner cash. The price needs 32% growth for ten years; my bull has 27%.Price $280.70Base $80Safety below $56
- 38MercadoLibreNasdaq · MELIStrong moatSales up 43% while margin halves by choice. The price needs 13% back; 2023 made 14.6%, and my bear stays at 9%.Price $1,624.53Base $1,822Safety below $824
- 39Sea LimitedNYSE · SECan be disruptedThe price pays for a 1.5% Shopee margin against my 2%, and for a founder nobody can outvote on cloud spending.Price $74.24Base $93Safety below $60
- 40CoupangNYSE · CPNGStrong moatKorea earns $1.2B in a normal year and the ventures spend most of it. The price needs a 9.7% margin; I model 11%.Price $14.37Base $18Safety below $13
- 41Nu HoldingsNYSE · NUStrong moatA low-cost bank priced for Brazil's risk. The price needs revenue per customer up 5.7% a year; I model 8.9%.Price $11.61Base $14.30Safety below $9.87
- 42AdyenEuronext Amsterdam · ADYENStrong moatGrowing about 20% at 23 times earnings, with its margin target gone. The price needs 8.4% cash growth a year; I model 10.2%.Price €826.90Base €1,063Safety below €744
- 43RobinhoodNasdaq · HOODCan be disruptedThe business got far better, and the price knows. It needs owner cash up 18% a year for 15 years; I model about 13%.Price $84.99Base $50Safety below $35
- 44Intuitive SurgicalNasdaq · ISRGStrong moatThe best robot in surgery, 84% recurring revenue. The price needs 14.5% owner cash growth for 15 years; I model 7.8%.Price $432.01Base $220Safety below $154
- 45Rocket LabNasdaq · RKLBCan be disruptedThe price needs about $11B a year of owner cash from 2036; it burned $453M last year and Neutron slipped to 2027.Price $54.73Base $10Safety below $4
- 46FerrariEuronext Milan and NYSE · RACEStrong moatRations its cars and raises prices. At 38 times earnings the price needs owner cash to grow 16% a year; I model 6%.Price €355.10Base €179Safety below €134
- 47CostcoNasdaq · COSTStrong moatSuppliers fund the stock and the margin on goods doubled in ten years. The price needs 20% sales growth a year; my base has 8%.Price $1,012.28Base $530Safety below $371
- 48CognizantNasdaq · CTSHThin moatResold and bought revenue flatter 5% growth; the price needs owner cash to shrink 0.8% a year, and I model 3% growth.Price $65.11Base $87Safety below $61
- 49Booking HoldingsNasdaq · BKNGStrong moatPrice needs 1.4% bookings growth for ten years; I model 7.5%. Rivals grew faster, and AI could raise the cost of a customer.Price $148.13Base $223Safety below $135
- 50Alibaba GroupNYSE and HKEX · BABACan be disruptedCloud grows 45% while the build burns cash. At $98.04 the ADS sits near my base of $99, with no cushion.Price $98.04Base $99Safety below $64
- 51lululemon athleticaNasdaq · LULUCan be disruptedGuidance was cut twice since March. The price assumes the margin never gets past 12%; my base has it at 16.5%.Price $107.24Base $148Safety below $89
- 52Deckers OutdoorNYSE · DECKCan be disruptedTwo brands, no debt, 18.7% net margin. The price needs sales to shrink 2% a year; I model 4% growth.Price $81.99Base $116Safety below $69
- 53Monster BeverageNasdaq · MNSTStrong moatA 29% margin, no debt and Coca-Cola’s bottlers. The price needs 13% sales growth a year for ten years; my base has 8%.Price $47.34Base $33Safety below $23
- 54IntuitNasdaq · INTUStrong moatOwner cash is $5.0B, not $8.6B, after tax benefit, stock pay and loans; a flat 31.8% margin needs 5.3% growth a year.Price $341.09Base $428Safety below $301
- 55Novo NordiskNYSE · NVOCan be disruptedSemaglutide is 74% of sales and its US patent ends in 2032. The price needs 4.8% owner cash growth a year; I model 0.7%.Price $40.00Base $28Safety below $20
- 56GoDaddyNYSE · GDDYCan be disruptedCustomers are flat at 20.5M, revenue per customer is up 25% since 2023. The price needs no growth in owner cash flow.Price $117.24Base $159Safety below $103
- 57AdobeNasdaq · ADBEStrong moatPriced for stalled revenue. Organic ARR growth is slowing and CEO and CFO are both changing, so the gap may be earned.Price $250.23Base $372Safety below $242
- 58InsuletNasdaq · PODDStrong moatOne product, a slowing US, a stock down 57%. My base is $203; a 30% margin of safety is $142, just under the price.Price $149.68Base $203Safety below $142
- 59NICE LtdNasdaq · NICECan be disruptedOwner cash is $0.41B on $0.56B of free cash flow; the price sits 6% above my base while the margin after stock pay has slid.Price $113.76Base $107Safety below $75
- 60AppleNasdaq · AAPLStrong moatThe business is superb; the price asks for 15% sales growth a year, and my base has 5%.Price $344.63Base $179Safety below $125
- 61WalmartNasdaq · WMTStrong moatMargin has not risen in nine years; ads and membership may lift it. The price needs 13% growth a year; my base has 4%.Price $123.51Base $57Safety below $40
- 62JPMorgan ChaseNYSE · JPMStrong moatThe best large bank, earning 20% on tangible equity. The price needs about 19% for ten years; my base fades to 16.5%.Price $337.04Base $293Safety below $190
- 63Saudi AramcoTadawul · 2222Can be disruptedAt SAR 25.92 the share sits at my bull: oil near $85 and more barrels sold, while the state keeps 59% of profit.Price SAR 25.92Base SAR 18.1Safety below SAR 10.9
- 64Samsung ElectronicsKRX · 005930Can be disruptedThree years of my base cash cover 80% of the market value. It is the memory bet of SK hynix, with ₩201T behind it.Price ₩225,000Base ₩331,000Safety below ₩247,000
- 65Exxon MobilNYSE · XOMThin moatAt $187.25 the share is 39% above my base: it pays for Brent near $99 for years, and 2026 profit includes a refining windfall.Price $187.25Base $135Safety below $93
- 66EnbridgeTSX and NYSE · ENBVery hard to disruptCash after all capital covers 10% of the dividend; debt funds the rest. The price asks 9.4% on my cash flows and I ask 9.0%.Price C$69.11Base C$74Safety below C$54
- 67Franco-NevadaNYSE · FNVCan be disruptedThe royalty book is worth about $130 a share to me; the price needs gold near twice today’s.Price $224.95Base $130Safety below $80
- 68Couche-TardTSX · ATDCan be disruptedHalf the profit is fuel at a record US margin. The price needs about 51 cents a gallon to last; I model 46.Price C$80.98Base C$73Safety below C$51
- 69Tiny LtdTSX · TINYThin moatC$39.8M of adjusted EBITDA, about C$5M of free cash flow. The price needs 4.3% yearly growth and loans extended.Price C$6.06Base C$4.43Safety below C$2.01
- 70Bending SpoonsNasdaq · BSPCan be disruptedMargins and Berkshire back the method. The price needs deals at 4.4 times profit; I model 5.5.Price $45.52Base $37Safety below $16
- 71SandiskNasdaq · SNDKThin moatThe price needs a 74% gross margin held every year to FY2036. The best year before FY2026 was 47%.Price $1,150.89Base $588Safety below $388
- 72STMicroelectronicsNYSE · STMCan be disruptedBase cash to 2029 covers 17% of the price, which needs a 25% settled margin. ST made that in two of ten years.Price $46.74Base $40Safety below $20
- 73Vishay IntertechnologyNYSE · VSHThin moatThe price needs $0.45B of owner cash a year from 2030, nearly twice Vishay’s best year of $0.23B; my base reaches $0.37B by 2036.Price $26.74Base $19Safety below $11
- 74CerebrasNasdaq · CBRSCan be disruptedReal chip, signed OpenAI contract, $8.6B cash; at $109.18 the price needs the bull case almost whole.Price $109.18Base $39Safety below $14
- 75NebiusNasdaq · NBISThin moatThe price asks for 31% a year on new equipment; $36B is still to be raised, and it burned $6.1B last year.Price $154.14Base $134Safety below $10
- 76CoreWeaveNasdaq · CRWVCan be disruptedThe price needs the chips to earn about nine years at my base prices; $103.7B of backlog sits on $35.6B of debt.Price $54.87Base $9Safety below $4
- 77Core ScientificNasdaq · CORZCan be disruptedThe leases are real and long; the price needs rent 26% above the AMD average, with $6B of build still to fund.Price $13.25Base $9Safety below $5
- 78Applied DigitalNasdaq · APLDCan be disruptedThe price needs finished campuses valued at a 7.1% yield; after $6.4B of debt and $2.0B of preferred, my base is $1.50.Price $17.82Base $1.50Safety none
- 79WhiteFiberNasdaq · WYFIThin moatA real asset on a thin slice of equity. At $10.36 the price needs the bull case to have about a one in four chance.Price $10.36Base $4Safety below $2
- 80IRENNasdaq · IRENCan be disruptedThe equity is a thin slice above debt: 5% on revenue per MW moves value $14, and the price needs +1%.Price $23.95Base $21Safety none
- 81BitdeerNasdaq · BTDRThin moatThe price needs about 250 MW of AI cloud by 2031, 2.3 times my base; Bitdeer burned $1.48B of owner cash last year.Price $6.71Base $3Safety below $2
- 82Riot PlatformsNasdaq · RIOTCan be disruptedThe price needs about 1.8 GW of leases not yet signed, and $310M a year of overhead eats most of what the signed ones earn.Price $12.81Base $3.34Safety below $0.08
- 83CleanSparkNasdaq · CLSKCan be disruptedThe price needs about 1,170 MW of new leases; one 175 MW lease is signed and its notes take the cash for 15 years.Price $7.67Base $3Safety below $1
- 84Keel InfrastructureNasdaq · KEELThin moatNo lease yet and $1.05B of notes due 2031 and 2032. The price needs 1.4 times the megawatts in my base case.Price $2.06Base $1.16Safety below $0.58
- 85HIVE Digital TechnologiesNasdaq · HIVEThin moatThe price needs about 17 more GPU clusters than my base; mining ends at the 2028 halving and debts come first.Price $1.91Base $0.20Safety below $0.10
- 86Bloom EnergyNYSE · BECan be disruptedRevenue guided to $4.5B and profits real, but two customers are 69% of sales and the cash goes into inventory.Price $203.17Base $44Safety below $6
- 87Solaris Energy InfrastructureNYSE · SEICan be disruptedThe price needs 6,000 MW more than the 3,300 MW planned; it burned $758M of owner cash last year and owes $3.8B.Price $70.70Base $32Safety below $6
- 88Babcock & WilcoxNYSE · BWCan be disruptedThe price needs about 15.5 GW of new contracts or 4.3 points more margin; the one big customer had yet to close financing.Price $4.27Base $1.41Safety below $0.92
- 89ProPetroNYSE · PUMPThin moatThe price needs a 4.6-year payback on power; 60 MW of the 510 MW is a data centre, and owners kept about $11M in ten years.Price $7.73Base $6Safety below $3
- 90T1 EnergyNYSE · TEThin moatA solar plant paid for by a tax credit that ends in 2032, one customer, and $0.8B of debt ahead of the shares.Price $2.70Base $0.09Safety below $0.07
- 91SharonAINasdaq · SHAZThin moatThe price needs the NVIDIA fleet to earn $3.84 a chip-hour on all 40,000 chips; its contract pays $2.32.Price $22.68Base $4.80Safety below $2.40
- 92AbCellera BiologicsNasdaq · ABCLThin moatA positive Phase 2 and $0.7B of cash. The price needs ABCL635 near $9B of sales; my base has $1.5B.Price $11.12Base $3Safety below $2
- 93McKessonNYSE · MCKStrong moatA toll road on US drug flows at 22 times earnings; the price needs 6% growth a year, my base has 5%.Price $998.38Base $920Safety below $644
- 94CVS HealthNYSE · CVSCan be disruptedThe price assumes 2026 profit never grows. Aetna is recovering, but CVS missed badly in 2024; my base is $8.60 for 2028.Price $88.51Base $111Safety below $77
- 95Constellation SoftwareTSX · CSUCan be disruptedThe cash is four times the profit and all of it is reinvested; the price needs purchase returns 6% better than I model.Price C$3,447.02Base C$3,110Safety below C$2,180
- 96Royal Bank of CanadaTSX · RYStrong moatCanada’s biggest bank earns 22% on tangible equity. The price needs that for ten years; my base fades to 17%.Price C$286.21Base C$227Safety below C$148
- 97National Bank of CanadaTSX · NACan be disruptedA Quebec bank earning about 20% on tangible equity. The price needs 21% for ten years; my base fades to 18%.Price C$214.21Base C$169Safety below C$110
- 98Brookfield CorporationTSX · BNStrong moatParts add up to C$64, the price is C$58, but owners got 21% of earnings and the company marks over half its own assets.Price C$57.95Base C$64Safety below C$45
- 99CelesticaNYSE · CLSThin moatAI switches at an 11% gross margin, 35% from one buyer. The price needs $103B of 2036 revenue; I model $55B.Price $249.22Base $169Safety below $87
- 100CencoraNYSE · CORCan be disruptedA 1.3-cent margin and $16.6B of physician deals; at $337.84 the price needs the top of management’s growth target.Price $337.84Base $243Safety below $170
- 101Bank of AmericaNYSE · BACStrong moatA solid bank priced for today’s returns: it needs about 15% on tangible equity for ten years; my base eases from 16% to 14%.Price $49.57Base $46Safety below $30
- 102CPKCNYSE · CPStrong moatOwners kept C$2.9B; C$4.6B was paid out, partly borrowed. The price asks 7.1% on my cash flows, and I ask 9.0%.Price $91.49Base $66Safety below $50
- 103ShellNYSE · SHELCan be disruptedAt $104.94 the ADS is 4% below my base: it prices Brent near $69, and owner cash trails the payout.Price $104.94Base $110Safety below $58
- 104UnitedHealth GroupNYSE · UNHCan be disruptedThe price needs the margin back near 8% by 2031. I model 7.5%, after a fall from 8.7% to 4.2% in two years.Price $400.44Base $376Safety below $244
- 105FoxconnTWSE · 2317Thin moatSales up 47%, margin 3.5%, cash negative. At NT$245.50 the price is 21% above my base of NT$203.Price NT$245.50Base NT$203Safety below NT$132
- 106BombardierTSX · BBD.BCan be disruptedPure business jets with US$21.8B of backlog. The price needs US$2.9B of 2030 EBITDA; I model US$2.2B.Price C$327.01Base C$229Safety below C$160
- 107BlackBerryNYSE · BBCan be disruptedQNX is real and growing. The price needs $1.9B of QNX revenue by 2037; my base has $0.9B.Price $8.02Base $4.13Safety below $2.89
- 108Iovance BiotherapeuticsNasdaq · IOVAThin moatAmtagvi sells; lung is the bet. With a lung label certain my base is $8.06; I put the odds at 40%.Price $8.02Base $5.73Safety below $3.72
- 109Lockheed MartinNYSE · LMTStrong moatA $292B backlog, one customer. The price needs a 12.7% segment margin; I model 11.0%.Price $643.15Base $541Safety below $379
- 110RTXNYSE · RTXStrong moatUS$340B of backlog and a service annuity. The price needs a 21% operating margin by 2030; I model 15.8%.Price $202.79Base $149Safety below $104
- 111Northrop GrummanNYSE · NOCStrong moatA record $109.6B backlog, but $2.0B already lost on fixed-price B-21 lots. The price needs a 12.6% margin; I model 11.0%.Price $555.32Base $468Safety below $328
- 112General DynamicsNYSE · GDStrong moatUS$220B of backlog and 68% of revenue from one customer. The price needs a 12.2% margin by 2030; I model 10.7%.Price $373.46Base $321Safety below $241
- 113BoeingNYSE · BAStrong moatA duopoly with $745B of backlog, but free cash flow is about zero. The price needs $17.5B of 2030 profit; I model $11.0B.Price $175.40Base $95Safety below $66
- 114AirbusEuronext Paris · AIRStrong moatSold out for a decade, but engines cap output. The price needs €13.2B of 2029 EBIT Adjusted; I model €11.4B.Price €193.32Base €167Safety below €117
- 115BAE SystemsLSE · BA.Strong moatUK defence group with £84.0bn of backlog and mostly government customers. The price needs £5.6bn of 2030 EBIT; I model £5.0bn.Price £20.75Base £16.69Safety below £11.68
- 116LightPath TechnologiesNasdaq · LPTHThin moatRevenue doubled to $71.7M on germanium-free optics. The price needs about $600M of 2036 revenue at 25% margins; I model $215M.Price $7.63Base $2.72Safety below $1.77
- 117IntelNasdaq · INTCCan be disruptedA designer earning US$5.3B a quarter beside a factory losing US$1.9B. The price needs the factory to win outside customers.Price $59.97Base $28Safety below $17
- 118Fannie MaeOTC · FNMAStrong moatEarns US$15.4B but pays Treasury first. At $5.11 the price needs a 35% chance Treasury gives up part of its US$238B claim.Price $5.11Base $5.15Safety below $3.61
- 119Freddie MacOTC · FMCCStrong moatEarns $10B+ a year, but it all builds Treasury’s $150B claim. The stock needs a release that converts that claim.Price $4.69Base $3.93Safety below $2.75
- 120NikeNYSE · NKECan be disruptedRevenue is guided down by a high single digit and earnings roughly in half. The price needs a 14% EBIT margin; my base has 10%.Price $40.49Base $29Safety below $18
- 121Fair IsaacNYSE · FICOStrong moatA 90%-margin score business meets a $1 rival its own distributors own. The price needs business scores to grow 3.5% a year.Price $701.03Base $617Safety below $442
- 122Las Vegas SandsNYSE · LVSStrong moatAll profit is Singapore and Macau. The price needs $5.4B of 2030 property EBITDA; I model $5.7B.Price $40.74Base $46Safety below $32
- 123Extra Space StorageNYSE · EXRCan be disruptedStorage landlord at 21 times AFFO. Core FFO a share is flat since 2022 and the price sits 3% above my bull.Price $161.04Base $129Safety below $90
- 124NewmontNYSE · NEMThin moatAt $118 the shares need gold near $4,900 for good; on gold at today’s $4,073 I value Newmont at $83.Price $118.15Base $83Safety below $65
- 125Southern CopperNYSE · SCCOCan be disruptedI value it at $63 a share, about a third of the price; at a 9% return the price needs copper near US$12 a pound for good.Price $176.84Base $63Safety below $42
- 126TXNM EnergyNYSE · TXNMStrong moatA $61.25 cash deal sets the price. The utility alone is worth about $50; at my guess of 60% to 80% deal odds, $57 to $58.Price $58.49Base $50Safety below $41
- 127WilliamsNYSE: WMBStrong moatCash after all capital was −$2.3B on a $2.55B dividend. The price asks 9.0% on my cash flows and I ask 9.0%.Price $67.86Base $68Safety below $45
- 128SeaboardNYSE American · SEBThin moatProfit has averaged $294M a year on plant that nearly tripled. The price needs $435M, and pork is losing money.Price $3,442.75Base $2,820Safety below $1,580
- 129Black HillsNYSE · BKHCan be disruptedA 3.3% yield against a 4.95% Treasury: the price asks 7.6% a year on my cash flows, and I ask 8.25%.Price $84.19Base $73Safety below $60
- 130Everus Construction GroupNYSE · ECGThin moatBacklog is up 86% and 55% of revenue is commercial work, but one customer is 16.5%. The price needs a margin that never fades.Price $79.71Base $64Safety below $36
- 131VylorNYSE · VYLRStrong moatSpun off 1 October, 25 sessions of record. The price needs 7.7% growth for ten years; the plan says 3% to 4%.Price $71.25Base $41Safety below $33
- 132EmersonNYSE · EMRStrong moatPrice gave 3 of 4 points of 2026 growth. At a flat 29% margin the price needs 10% growth for ten years.Price $170.44Base $113Safety below $100
- 133Rockwell AutomationNYSE · ROKStrong moatSales are back at 2023 levels. At 34 times earnings the price needs 16% growth for ten years at a 25% margin.Price $443.88Base $206Safety below $155
- 134EntergyNYSE · ETRStrong moatThe plan doubles rate base to $97B by 2030. The price needs a 7.0% cost of equity where I use 8.0%.Price $111.90Base $84Safety below $69
- 135AbbVieNYSE · ABBVCan be disruptedSkyrizi and Rinvoq are 47% of revenue and their US patents end in 2033. The price needs 10.5% growth for ten years.Price $294.83Base $113Safety below $79
- 136StrykerNYSE · SYKStrong moatMako, MedSurg and a buying habit. The price needs 7.5% owner cash growth for 15 years; I model 6.4%.Price $339.65Base $310Safety below $232
- 137Procter & GambleNYSE · PGStrong moatPrice rose 15 points in four years while volume fell 2. At a 24.5% margin the price needs 6.5% growth for ten years.Price $167.32Base $125Safety below $100
- 138HumanaNYSE · HUMThin moatThe price needs a 2.1% Medicare Advantage margin in 2028, from below zero in 2026. Management says 3%; I model 2.0%.Price $417.42Base $405Safety below $263
- 139HCA HealthcareNYSE · HCACan be disruptedUninsured admissions rose 27% in Q3. The price needs 6% growth at a 20.6% margin; I model 4.4% growth at about 19.5%.Price $510.70Base $352Safety below $229
- 140EastGroup PropertiesNYSE · EGPCan be disruptedIndustrial landlord at 27 times AFFO. FFO a share is guided up 7% for 2026; the price sits 3% above my bull.Price $201.00Base $166Safety below $116
- 141Vulcan MaterialsNYSE · VMCStrong moatPrices rose 12% a year in 2021 to 2024 and 4% since. At $297.69 the price needs about 6% a year for ten more.Price $297.69Base $182Safety below $168
- 142Coca-ColaNYSE · KOStrong moatThe price needs owner cash to grow 9% a year for ten years; my base has 5%, and an IRS ruling is pending.Price $95.80Base $74Safety below $52
- 143Sunbelt RentalsNYSE · SUNBCan be disruptedOwner cash after replacing fleet is about $1.3B, not the $2.1B reported; the price returns 7.4% on my base against 10.0%.Price $80.73Base $42Safety below $32
- 145Howmet AerospaceNYSE · HWMStrong moatSales up 29% at a 32% margin, but the price needs 16% growth a year for ten years; my base has 6%.Price $213.56Base $103Safety below $82
- 146Casella Waste SystemsNasdaq · CWSTCan be disruptedPrices charged rose 45% on 10% fewer tons since 2019. Owner cash was $120M on $423M of EBITDA; the price is above my bull.Price $98.88Base $45Safety below $29
- 147Iron MountainNYSE · IRMCan be disruptedRecords fund a debt-financed data center build. At 20 times AFFO the price is 35% above my base.Price $118.66Base $88Safety below $62
- 148Philip Morris InternationalNYSE · PMStrong moatThe price needs owner cash to grow 10% a year for ten years; the $6.40 dividend takes about all of my $9.5B.Price $211.28Base $149Safety below $104
- 149Johnson & JohnsonNYSE · JNJStrong moatStelara fell from $10.9B to about $2.7B and sales still grew. The price needs 15.6% growth a year for ten years.Price $276.32Base $91Safety below $64
- 150DanaherNYSE · DHRStrong moatQuality at a full price. Owner cash after amortization is $4.0B; the price needs it to grow 10.5% a year for 15 years.Price $234.93Base $157Safety below $117
- 151IDEXX LaboratoriesNasdaq · IDXXStrong moatNet prices rose about 4% as US visits fell 1.8%. At flat margin the share price needs 20% revenue growth for ten years.Price $698.55Base $306Safety below $214
- 152MatsonNYSE · MATXStrong moatThe price needs 2026’s China-fed $690M of operating income to last; my base has $500M once the ships are paid for.Price $211.44Base $143Safety below $81
- 153Marvell TechnologyNasdaq · MRVLCan be disruptedCustom AI chips, and a $115B stock deal for Lumentum. The price needs $27B of owner cash in FY2037; I model $14B.Price $159.80Base $106Safety below $38
- 154First National Bank AlaskaOTCQX · FBAKCan be disruptedA sound Alaska bank at a peak margin: the price needs 16.6% on tangible equity for ten years; my base eases from 15% to 12.5%.Price $338.00Base $242Safety below $157
- 155UiPathNYSE · PATHCan be disruptedThe price needs ARR growth to hold near 12% and stock pay to fall; counting stock pay as cash, my base is $11.82.Price $12.98Base $11.82Safety below $8.27
- 156Tempus AINasdaq · TEMCan be disruptedThe price needs 29% revenue growth a year for ten years at my margins; my base has 12%, and stock pay is $200M a year.Price $84.44Base $22Safety below $4
- 157Parabilis MedicinesNasdaq · PBLSThin moatThe price pays for cancers the drug has barely been tried in; my base values desmoid tumours, the cash and the odds at $5.41.Price $30.37Base $5.41Safety below $1.04
- 158FreshworksNasdaq · FRSHCan be disruptedFree cash flow is $252M; after stock pay owners keep about $68M, before $191M of deals. My base is $10.34.Price $12.01Base $10.34Safety below $7.24
- 159AST SpaceMobileNasdaq · ASTSCan be disruptedThe price needs about 97M paying subscribers and all 248 satellites by 2033; my base has 70M, and the shares come last.Price $36.89Base $11Safety below $0
- 160QualcommNasdaq · QCOMCan be disruptedThe price needs $14.5B of owner cash in 2030; my base has $8.5B as phone chips shrink and stock pay rises.Price $171.47Base $98Safety below $59
- 161Revolution MedicinesNasdaq · RVMDCan be disruptedThe price needs the pancreatic and lung trials to win and a launch 1.4 times my sizes; my $89 base weights each trial by my odds.Price $200.15Base $89Safety below $53
- 162Arm HoldingsNasdaq · ARMStrong moatAfter $1.3B of stock pay Arm left an owner no cash; the price needs its 2031 plan met, then more.Price $186.30Base $44Safety below $21
- 163Planet LabsNYSE · PLCan be disruptedRemaining obligations fell $99M in six months while revenue was $210M; the price needs orders to outrun deliveries.Price $14.37Base $2.52Safety below $0.57
- 164CME GroupNasdaq · CMEStrong moatThe price needs owner cash to grow 6.8% a year for 15 years; my base case has 4.3%.Price $304.52Base $234Safety below $176
- 165AppLovinNasdaq · APPCan be disruptedRevenue per install rose 55% on 2% more installs; the price needs growth a fifth faster than my base for ten years.Price $395.51Base $336Safety below $117
- Bear to bull value
- Base case
- Price at the close, Q4 2026
- Margin-of-safety zone
Each bar is drawn against its own base case, from 0 to 200% of it, so the base ticks line up and the dots compare across companies.
The answer first
Each page opens with the thesis in three sentences and one line for each of six questions: why the business wins, the moat, the advantage, the management, the margin of safety and the price. The rest of the page is the evidence.
Every number sourced
Each figure carries a footnote to a filing, a price feed or a transcript, and a label: (reported)reported, (calculated)calculated from reported figures, or (estimate)my estimate.
A range, never a rating
I value each company in three cases, bear, base and bull, then solve the model backwards to show what the price already assumes. Each page sets a margin-of-safety price below the base value and says how: a stated discount, or a floor set from the bear case when one cycle drives the business. The page shows where the price sits against all of it.
Research, not investment advice. Figures as of .
Legal information and disclosures
These are my own views as of the update shown on this page. They can change without notice, and I have no duty to update them. Past performance does not indicate future results, and any investment can lose money.
This is for education only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security in any jurisdiction. It does not consider your goals or circumstances.
Figures from company filings and other third parties are believed to be reliable, but I have not independently verified them and cannot guarantee them. Bear, base and bull values, and anything marked as an estimate, are my own and rest on assumptions that may prove wrong.
Please do not copy or republish this material without my written consent.