Investing · Private

Private companies, and the IPOs to come.

You cannot buy these on an exchange yet. They are the largest companies still held by private investors, and several are preparing to list. For each I ask three plain questions: does it have a moat, what was its last valuation, and does the public data support that price.

The companies

  1. 01AnthropicPrivate · S-1 filed · AI models · San FranciscoCan be disruptedMaker of the Claude AI models. Not yet listed: S-1/A filed 2 Nov 2026, Nasdaq ticker ANT proposed.Bear $70B, base $465B, bull $1.84T; last valuation $965B (2026-05), 108% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $349B.Last $965BBase $465BSafety below $349B
  2. 02OpenAIPrivate · AI models · San FranciscoCan be disruptedMaker of ChatGPT: private, confidential IPO filing, $852bn last round, large losses.Bear $240B, base $740B, bull $1.75T; last valuation $852B (2026-03), 15% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $555B.Last $852BBase $740BSafety below $555B
  3. 03ByteDancePrivate · Short video and AI · BeijingStrong moatOwner of TikTok and Douyin, privately held, with a 2026 valuation that depends on thin secondary trades.Bear $230B, base $580B, bull $1.12T; last valuation $550B (2026-02), 5% below the base value; margin-of-safety value $435B.Last $550BBase $580BSafety below $435B
  4. 04TetherPrivate · Stablecoins · El SalvadorCan be disruptedIssuer of USDT, the largest dollar stablecoin. Privately held, unaudited, and chasing a $500 billion price.Bear $12B, base $50B, bull $162B; last valuation $500B (2026-04), 900% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $38B.Last $500BBase $50BSafety below $38B
  5. 05DatabricksPrivate · Data and AI software · San FranciscoCan be disruptedA private data and AI software company, last valued at $190B in August 2026, with no public IPO filing.Bear $45B, base $139B, bull $262B; last valuation $190B (2026-08), 37% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $104B.Last $190BBase $139BSafety below $104B
  6. 06StripePrivate · Payments · San Francisco and DublinStrong moatA private payments company valued at $159B in a February tender, with no IPO plan reported.Bear $65B, base $144B, bull $242B; last valuation $159B (2026-02), 10% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $108B.Last $159BBase $144BSafety below $108B
  7. 07RevolutPrivate · Digital banking · LondonCan be disruptedA private, loss-free digital bank with 68 million retail customers, priced at a reported $115 billion.Bear $19B, base $67B, bull $139B; last valuation $115B (2026-07), 72% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $50B.Last $115BBase $67BSafety below $50B
  8. 08Anduril IndustriesPrivate · Defense technology · Costa Mesa, CaliforniaCan be disruptedA private defense maker of autonomous aircraft, missiles and battlefield software, last priced at $61B and about $90B in a share sale.Bear $15B, base $40B, bull $82B; last valuation $90B (2026-10), 125% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $30B.Last $90BBase $40BSafety below $30B
  9. 09RampPrivate · Corporate cards and spend managementCan be disruptedA private corporate card and finance software company, last priced at $60 billion in October 2026.Bear $4B, base $27B, bull $78B; last valuation $60B (2026-10), 122% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $20B.Last $60BBase $27BSafety below $20B
  10. 10RipplePrivate · Payments and crypto infrastructure · San FranciscoCan be disruptedPrivate crypto payments firm priced at $50 billion in a buyback, with a stated revenue run-rate near $300 million.Bear $8.8B, base $21.7B, bull $43.4B; last valuation $50B (2026-03), 130% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $16.3B.Last $50BBase $21.7BSafety below $16.3B
  11. 11Cognition AIPrivate · AI software agents · San FranciscoCan be disruptedMaker of Devin, an AI coding agent, and the Windsurf editor. Privately held, last valued at $48 billion.Bear $6B, base $25B, bull $93B; last valuation $48B (2026-09), 92% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $19B.Last $48BBase $25BSafety below $19B
  12. 12KalshiPrivate · Prediction marketsCan be disruptedA private US exchange for event contracts. Last priced at $40 billion; sports fees depend on court rulings.Bear $3B, base $20B, bull $65B; last valuation $40B (2026-10), 100% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $15B.Last $40BBase $20BSafety below $15B
  13. 13Figure AIPrivate · Humanoid robots · San JoseCan be disruptedA private robot maker valued at $39B on little public revenue, with an unproven model.Bear $2B, base $12B, bull $74B; last valuation $39B (2025-09), 225% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $9B.Last $39BBase $12BSafety below $9B
  14. 14Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI)Private · AI research lab · Palo Alto and Tel AvivThin moatA private AI lab with one goal, safe superintelligence, no reported revenue and a valuation that rests on belief.Bear $6B, base $37B, bull $150B; last valuation $32B (2025-04), 14% below the base value; margin-of-safety value $28B.Last $32BBase $37BSafety below $28B
  15. 15CanvaPrivate · Design software · SydneyCan be disruptedSydney design tool with 265M monthly users, valued near US$31B, not listed, 2027 IPO talked about.Bear $12B, base $23B, bull $41B; last valuation $31B (2026-08), 35% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $17B.Last $31BBase $23BSafety below $17B
  16. 16Mistral AIPrivate · Paris · AI modelsCan be disruptedA French AI model maker sold on European control, last priced at about $24 billion.Bear $4B, base $21B, bull $65B; last valuation $24.4B (2026-09), 16% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $16B.Last $24.4BBase $21BSafety below $16B
  17. 17The Boring CompanyPrivate · Tunnels and transitCan be disruptedA private tunnelling firm that runs a small Las Vegas taxi tunnel and is now selling Loop systems abroad.Bear $1.2B, base $6.7B, bull $42.6B; last valuation $23B (2026-09), 243% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $5B.Last $23BBase $6.7BSafety below $5B
  18. 18Epic GamesPrivate · Games and software · Cary, North CarolinaCan be disruptedPrivate maker of Fortnite and Unreal Engine, cutting costs while it fights Apple and Google in court.Bear $3B, base $11B, bull $26B; last valuation $22.5B (2024-02), 105% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $8B.Last $22.5BBase $11BSafety below $8B
  19. 19ElevenLabsPrivate · Voice AI · London and New YorkCan be disruptedA private voice AI company, last valued at $22 billion in an employee share sale in September 2026.Bear $3B, base $11B, bull $26B; last valuation $22B (2026-09), 100% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $8B.Last $22BBase $11BSafety below $8B
  20. 20PolymarketPrivate · Prediction markets · New YorkCan be disruptedA private prediction market, back in the US since late 2025, with a reported $21 billion valuation.Bear $4B, base $15B, bull $36B; last valuation $21B (2026-08), 40% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $11B.Last $21BBase $15BSafety below $11B
  21. 21Perplexity AIPrivate · San Francisco · AI searchCan be disruptedA private AI answer engine and agent maker, valued at $20B in 2025 on thin public numbers.Bear $1B, base $7.3B, bull $38.3B; last valuation $20B (2025-09), 174% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $5.5B.Last $20BBase $7.3BSafety below $5.5B
  22. 22DiscordPrivate · San Francisco · Chat and communityCan be disruptedA chat app for communities with 90 million daily users. Not listed: a confidential IPO filing is only press-reported.Bear $1.4B, base $4.4B, bull $9.6B; last valuation $14.7B (2021-09), 234% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $3.3B.Last $14.7BBase $4.4BSafety below $3.3B
  23. 23Thinking Machines LabPrivate · AI research and tools, San FranciscoThin moatMira Murati's AI lab sells fine-tuning tools and open models, valued at $12B, now in talks at $40B+.Bear $1B, base $12B, bull $75B; last valuation $12B (2025-07), 0% above the base value; margin-of-safety value $9B.Last $12BBase $12BSafety below $9B
  • Bear to bull value
  • Base case
  • Last valuation
  • Margin-of-safety zone

Each bar is drawn against its own base value, from 0 to 200% of it. The dot is the last valuation, not a share price. Values are equity value in US$ billions.

Private means no price

These companies have no public share price. The last valuation comes from a funding round, a tender offer or press reports, and it can be months old. Each page says which, and when.

A moat rating on every page

I rate how hard the business would be to disrupt: very hard to disrupt, strong moat, can be disrupted, or thin moat. The rating is for the company as it is today, not as its fans see it.

Is the price supported?

I build bear, base and bull values from the public data that exists, then set the last valuation against them. A high valuation is not a mistake by itself. The page says what you would have to believe.

Research, not investment advice. Private companies: figures as of .

Legal information and disclosures

These are my own views as of the update shown on this page. They can change without notice, and I have no duty to update them. Past performance does not indicate future results, and any investment can lose money.

This is for education only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security in any jurisdiction. It does not consider your goals or circumstances. Shares in private companies are generally not available to the public.

Figures from company filings and other third parties are believed to be reliable, but I have not independently verified them and cannot guarantee them. Bear, base and bull values, and anything marked as an estimate, are my own and rest on assumptions that may prove wrong.

Please do not copy or republish this material without my written consent.