Ripple

IWhat it does

Ripple is a private company. It has no listed shares, no public price and no stock ticker. Anything you read about its worth comes from private deals and press reports, which I label as such below. This page is research, not investment advice.

Ripple started in 2012. The court record in the SEC case says Arthur Britto, Chris Larsen and Jed McCaleb founded it, and that it was first called NewCoin, then OpenCoin, then Ripple Labs²⁰. It builds software and licensed financial services for moving and holding money. It also has a close, complicated link to XRP, a digital token that runs on the XRP Ledger, a public blockchain. Ripple is a company. XRP is a token. They are separate, but Ripple holds a very large amount of XRP, which matters for how to value it.

Today the business has five parts, as described in press coverage of the company’s own announcement¹⁶. First, Ripple Payments: cross-border payments for banks and fintechs, in more than 60 markets. Second, custody: holding crypto and other digital assets for institutions, for a fee based on the amount held. Third, RLUSD: a stablecoin (a token meant to stay worth one US dollar) that Ripple launched in December 2024⁴. Fourth, Ripple Prime: a prime broker, meaning a firm that lends money to, clears trades for and holds assets for hedge funds. Fifth, Ripple Treasury: cash-management software for corporate finance teams.

Most of these parts came from purchases. Ripple bought the Swiss custody firm Metaco in May 2023 for $250 million²⁵, the stablecoin payments firm Rail in August 2025 for $200 million¹⁰²³, the prime broker Hidden Road for about $1.25 billion in April 2025, later renamed Ripple Prime¹⁴, and the Chicago treasury software firm GTreasury for about $1 billion, announced on 16 October 2025⁵. Smaller deals include Palisade, announced in November 2025 with the price not disclosed²³, and Solvexia, a financial automation firm that GTreasury bought in January 2026²⁸. In March 2026 Ripple said it would obtain an Australian financial services licence through the proposed purchase of BC Payments Australia²⁹. The company says it has put roughly $4 billion into the crypto industry through investments, mergers and acquisitions¹⁰. So the Ripple of 2026 is partly a collection of acquired businesses, not only the payments network it started as.

On 26 October 2026 the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC, the bank regulator) gave final approval for Ripple National Trust Bank. The company says it can manage the segregated reserves behind RLUSD and hold digital assets as a fiduciary. RLUSD itself keeps being issued by Standard Custody and Trust Company, which is regulated by the New York Department of Financial Services⁴. A national trust bank in general does not make loans or take insured deposits. I did not see a claim in the Ripple release that it does⁴.

IIHow it makes money

Ripple has not published audited accounts. What we have are the company’s own statements and press reports, so the numbers below are weaker than filed financials. The CEO said the company ended 2025 with an annualised revenue run-rate of about $300 million across its products and services. The company now targets about $900 million of annualised product revenue by the end of 2026¹⁶. A run-rate takes recent sales and multiplies them out to a year. It is not revenue already earned, and it can include newly bought businesses. Nobody outside the company can say how much of the jump from $300 million to $900 million is bought and how much is organic.

Two other revenue figures circulate, and they conflict with the company’s. The data site Multiples.vc lists $1.2 billion at the time of the November 2025 round, without saying whether that is run-rate or trailing twelve months, and the figure does not match the CEO’s $300 million²³. I do not use it in my model. A third number I could not verify from a primary source.

Where does the money come from? By line: payments earn fees on volume. Ripple said payments volume had passed $95 billion by January 2026 and $100 billion by March 2026¹³¹⁰. Custody earns fees on assets held. RLUSD earns interest on the reserve assets behind it, so income rises with the amount in circulation¹⁶. Ripple Prime earns financing spreads and fees, and Ripple said its revenue has tripled year on year since it bought Hidden Road¹⁴. Treasury software earns subscriptions from more than 1,000 customers in 160 countries, per the GTreasury announcement⁵. A press report says Ripple Prime was profitable in 2025, but gave no figures¹⁵.

The XRP piece is the hardest to see. Ripple sells XRP from its holdings to fund the business. It used to publish quarterly sales reports. It stopped in May 2025, and now gives holdings updates through its blog and social media¹⁷. So the size of its token sales, which could be a large share of its cash, is not disclosed. The $900 million target is labelled product revenue, which likely excludes XRP sales, but Ripple has not confirmed that¹⁶. For the model, I treat XRP holdings as a separate asset and not as recurring revenue.

In the other direction, the business now carries debt. In 2026 Ripple Prime got a $200 million credit facility from Neuberger Berman, which supports margin lending to clients¹⁵, and issued $275 million of senior unsecured notes through Piper Sandler, rated BBB by the credit rater KBRA¹⁴. A rated debt deal suggests outside lenders were willing to look at the numbers of this unit. I did not see those numbers.

Key business metrics (reported = company stated; press = anonymous or secondary; est = my estimate)

IIIThe market and the competition

Ripple sits in four markets at once, and has a different set of rivals in each.

Cross-border payments. This is the old, large market of banks and fintechs moving money between countries. The incumbents are SWIFT, correspondent banks and card networks. Newer rivals use stablecoins: Circle and bank-run networks. Ripple’s pitch is that its licences and bank clients let it settle faster and cheaper. I could not find independent data on how much of its payment volume actually uses XRP, and Ripple has not tied volume to the token¹⁵¹⁶. The company says it holds more than 85 licences⁴.

Stablecoins. RLUSD has about $2.4 to $2.5 billion in circulation. The giants are far ahead: Tether has about $184 billion and Circle’s USDC about $75 billion, per DefiLlama figures quoted by Stablecoin Insider¹⁹. RLUSD is small, about one percent of Tether’s size. Its edge is that it is issued under New York and now federal trust-bank supervision, which some institutions want. Its weakness is that holders have little reason to choose it over USDC unless they already use Ripple’s network.

Prime brokerage and institutional crypto. Ripple Prime competes with banks that serve crypto funds, with Coinbase’s institutional arm and with other crypto brokers. It has signed Brevan Howard, a hedge fund managing about $35 billion, announced on 6 October 2026¹⁵. Brevan Howard also invested in Ripple in November 2025⁸, so this is not a fully independent client.

Treasury software. GTreasury competes with established treasury systems from large software vendors. The 1,000 customers are a real base, but the link to crypto is mostly a plan, not yet a result: Ripple says the deal lets customers use the repo market through Ripple Prime⁵.

Public comparables help set the yardstick. Coinbase trades at about 6.5 times trailing revenue (market value $38 billion on $5.5 billion of revenue, with an EV to EBITDA multiple of 24.8, per Multiples.vc on 2 November 2026)²². Circle trades at about 5.6 times (market value $18 billion on $3 billion of revenue)²¹. These are aggregator figures and not filings, and a different site gave a different Coinbase revenue number in my search, so treat the multiples as rough. At $50 billion and a $300 million run-rate, Ripple’s price is about 167 times the end-2025 run-rate and about 56 times the $900 million target. That is the gap to explain.

IVThe moat and how it could be disrupted

A moat is whatever stops rivals from taking a company’s customers or profits. I rate Ripple’s as contestable. That means it has real advantages, but they are not durable, and the business can be disrupted.

What Ripple has. First, a regulatory record. It fought the SEC for almost five years and came out with a clear court ruling that XRP sold on public exchanges is not a security, even though its direct sales to institutions were⁶⁷. It holds more than 85 licences and now a national trust bank approval⁴. Licences take years and money to gather. Second, relationships with banks and funds, plus a very large cash and token pile that lets it buy companies. Third, some switching cost: a treasurer who runs cash in GTreasury or a fund that clears trades through Ripple Prime does not move easily.

What it lacks. There is no network effect on the scale of a payment network or an exchange: a bank can add a Ripple link without leaving anything else. RLUSD is a copy-able product in a market where Tether and Circle are 30 to 75 times bigger. Prime brokerage and treasury software are crowded fields where the products are bought, not built. Much of the moat is the corporate shell around acquisitions, and those need years to integrate.

How it breaks. The most direct threat is that stablecoin rails get so cheap and common that no one needs a middle layer. Banks could also run their own tokenised deposit systems. A second risk is policy: the US now has friendly crypto rules, and that reduces Ripple’s relative head start, because every rival can also get a licence. Competitors such as Circle are also pursuing US trust-bank status. A third risk is XRP itself. If XRP stays far below its July 2025 peak of $3.65, the token that supports Ripple’s balance sheet and its brand loses worth¹⁵.

VThe numbers we can see

The SEC case. In December 2020 the SEC sued Ripple, Garlinghouse and Larsen, alleging an unregistered offering of XRP worth more than $1.3 billion and about $600 million of personal sales by the two executives². In July 2023 Judge Analisa Torres in New York ruled that XRP sold to institutional buyers was an unregistered securities offering, but XRP sold on public exchanges was not²⁰⁷. In August 2024 she set a civil penalty of $125,035,150 and an injunction against violating the Securities Act’s registration rules; the SEC had sought almost $2 billion²⁴⁶. In 2025 the parties asked her to cut the penalty to $50 million and lift the injunction. She refused. On 7 August 2025 both sides dismissed their appeals in the Second Circuit, ending the case with the $125 million penalty and the injunction in place¹⁶. The dismissal also resolves the actions against Garlinghouse and Larsen¹. I did not find a source confirming when the penalty was paid.

Funding and valuation history. A $1 billion tender offer (a company offer to buy back shares from employees and investors) was pitched at $40 billion in 2025, up from $28 billion in June 2025 according to an investor letter seen by The Information. It drew the lowest participation of any Ripple tender, meaning holders did not want to sell at that price⁹. Dates for that tender differ between sources: DL News says September and The Block says October, so I show both. Then, on 5 November 2025, Ripple announced $500 million at $40 billion, led by affiliates of Fortress and Citadel Securities, with Pantera, Galaxy, Brevan Howard and Marshall Wace⁸. Crunchbase did not say whether $40 billion was pre- or post-money, and I could not find it stated. In March 2026 Bloomberg reported a tender of up to $750 million at $50 billion, running through April¹⁰. Crunchbase puts total outside funding at just under $800 million since founding⁸.

A wrong figure to avoid. One news site reported that a May 2026 deal with Neuberger Berman raised $200 million at a $40 billion valuation¹⁴. Other coverage describes that deal as a $200 million debt facility for Ripple Prime, with no valuation attached¹⁵. I treat it as a debt facility and not a valuation point.

Buybacks. A January 2026 report says Ripple has repurchased more than 25 percent of its outstanding shares in recent years¹³. That is a company claim reported by the press. It tells us insiders and early backers have had a way out at some price, and that the share count is smaller than it was, but not what price.

Escrow. In 2017 Ripple put 55 billion XRP into escrow, a set of time-locked contracts, so supply would reach the market in a planned way³. Each month up to 1 billion XRP unlocks. Ripple then usually locks most of it again. Reports disagree on how much: 60 to 80 percent, or 70 to 90 percent, depending on the source¹⁷. On-chain tracking put the escrow at 31.68 billion XRP on 3 October 2026, with a further 4.74 billion XRP in Ripple operating wallets (a tracker estimate, not a Ripple statement)¹⁸. The 1 November 2026 unlock took the balance to about 30.4 billion by one count, with the newly released tokens not yet relocked when that article was written¹⁷. This matters because at $1.25 per XRP on 1 November 2026¹⁷, 36.4 billion XRP is worth about $45 billion on paper (my arithmetic), almost the size of the $50 billion valuation. But a holder cannot sell that much at the quoted price. Selling 1 billion XRP a month into a market with falling prices would push the price down. Ripple stopped publishing sales data in May 2025¹⁷, so we cannot see how much is sold.

XRP price. XRP was $3.65 in July 2025, $1.36 on 8 October 2026 and $1.25 on 1 November 2026¹⁵¹⁷. Ripple’s last two valuations came when the token was far higher, and the $50 billion figure came after the token had fallen by more than half¹⁰. That suggests investors in the tender are paying for the operating businesses and the licences, not only for the token. It is also possible that holders are just not selling.

RLUSD. Circulation was $2.409 billion on Ripple’s 24 September 2026 attestation, with $2.531 billion in reserve funds, and DefiLlama showed $2.521 billion on 30 September¹⁹. The two dates and sources differ and should not be averaged. A press report puts it at $2.6 billion in late October¹⁶. It was $1.34 billion at the start of 2026 per one source¹⁹.

Valuation history (reported = announced by the company; press = reported by outlets citing sources)

VIWho runs it and who owns it

Brad Garlinghouse is CEO⁵. Monica Long is president¹⁰. Co-founder Chris Larsen is a former CEO and was executive chairman at the time of the SEC’s 2020 complaint²; I could not confirm his current title. Stuart Alderoty is chief legal officer and led the legal fight⁷.

Ownership is only partly visible. Named investors include Fortress, Citadel Securities, Pantera, Galaxy Digital, Brevan Howard and Marshall Wace from the 2025 round, plus Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed, Standard Chartered and others⁸, and a data site lists 34 backers including IDG Capital, CME Ventures, SBI and Digital Currency Group²³. I could not open a source that states how much of the company Larsen, Garlinghouse or the founders own, so I do not give percentages. Larsen and Garlinghouse also held XRP personally: the SEC alleged about $600 million of personal sales².

There is a conflict of interest to weigh. The company is both an operating business and the largest single holder of the token it promotes. Management decides when to release and sell XRP, and doing so can lower the token’s price. Investors in the private company hold a claim on both the business and the token pile, and the company also lends credibility to the token through its products. The outside investors in November 2025 included trading firms (Citadel Securities, Brevan Howard, Galaxy) that also deal in the token and in Ripple Prime, so the line between investor and customer is blurred⁸¹⁵. That is not wrong, but I note it.

On IPOs: Monica Long said in January 2026, ’Currently we still plan to remain private’¹³. In August 2026 Garlinghouse said Ripple is ’more neutral’ on the topic, and noted that weak receptions for the BitGo and Securitize listings have discouraged going public, while Circle has done well¹¹¹².

VIIValuation: is the last price supported?

Equity value in US$ billions. Not a share price: a private company has none. Latest mark: tender offer (company buyback of up to $750 million, press-reported).

What the last valuation assumes

At $50 billion the price assumes two things on top of each other. The operating business has to reach something like $3 to $4 billion of annualised revenue and earn a premium multiple of 10 times or more, which is roughly my bull case on the operating side. And the XRP stack has to be worth around half of spot. If I use the 36.4 billion XRP at $1.25 as a rough $45 billion on paper, the price is close to the paper value of the token alone, leaving little for the operating businesses. That suggests either the market values the tokens at close to spot, or values the businesses at much more than their revenue supports.

Bear, base and bull

• Bear. Run-rate revenue ends 2026 at $0.5 billion (the company’s target is $0.9 billion, my estimate is lower), grows 25% a year to about $1.0 billion at end 2029, valued at 4 times revenue (below Coinbase 6.5x and Circle 5.6x)²¹²². Discount rate 15% for 3.2 years (a private, illiquid, crypto-linked business). XRP stack of 36.4 billion tokens valued at 15% of the $1.25 spot price, about $6.8 billion, for sale pressure and lockups. 6% dilution. Result: $8.8 billion.
• Base. Run-rate ends 2026 at $0.75 billion (about 83% of the target), grows 40% a year to about $2.1 billion at end 2029, valued at 7 times revenue (a small premium to Coinbase and Circle for faster growth)²¹²². Discount rate 14%, which is my estimate of a risk-adjusted equity return. XRP valued at 30% of spot, about $13.7 billion. 6% dilution. Result: $21.7 billion.
• Bull. Run-rate hits the full $0.9 billion by end 2026, then grows 60% a year to about $3.7 billion at end 2029, valued at 10 times revenue. Discount rate 12%. XRP valued at 45% of spot, about $20.5 billion. 6% dilution. Result: $43.4 billion.

Comparables used

Where I come down

The latest valuation of $50 billion is well above my base of $21.7 billion and above even my bull of $43.4 billion. My margin-of-safety figure, the base less 25 percent, is $16.3 billion. To be right at $50 billion, you would have to believe that revenue compounds at more than 60 percent a year for three years, that the market pays more than 10 times revenue, and that the token pile can be monetised close to spot. The market might still be right. The buyers in November 2025 are sophisticated: Citadel Securities, Fortress and Brevan Howard know the sector, and they may see numbers I cannot. Holders did not sell at $40 billion in 2025⁹, which suggests conviction. Acquisitions could also add revenue faster than my path, and a US bank charter, a rating-backed credit line and a stablecoin up 86 percent since the start of 2026 are real progress⁴¹⁴¹⁹. Also, the $50 billion price came from the company’s own buyback, not an open auction, so it may be a price at which few wanted to sell rather than a clearing price¹⁰. The valuation is five months old and crypto prices have fallen since.

What I cannot judge

I cannot see audited financials, the split of revenue between acquired and organic, profit, cash, debt, how much XRP is sold each month, who owns what share of the company, or the preferred terms of the 2025 round (a Fintech Weekly headline mentions investor protections that I did not open). The XRP haircut is my judgement and could be wrong by a large margin either way. Given that, treat my range of $9 billion to $43 billion as wide and uncertain, and do not rely on one forecast.

VIIIThe IPO

No IPO plan reported. No S-1 has been filed, publicly or, as far as I can see, confidentially. President Monica Long said in January 2026 that Ripple still plans to remain private¹³. At the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium on 18 August 2026, Garlinghouse said Ripple is ’more neutral’ on going public, and that the weak reception for the BitGo and Securitize listings has discouraged a listing while Circle has done well. No exchange, ticker, banks or timetable were reported¹¹¹². Ripple has been using private tenders and debt for liquidity instead: the $750 million tender at $50 billion in March 2026¹⁰, and $275 million of rated notes at Ripple Prime in August 2026¹⁴.

What to watch

• A confidential or public S-1 filing, or banks being reported
• Take-up in the March 2026 tender, if ever disclosed
• Audited financials or a disclosure of revenue, profit and XRP sales
• Whether the $900 million run-rate target is hit and how much is organic
• The XRP price and the net flow out of escrow each month
• The opening of Ripple National Trust Bank and RLUSD growth
• Performance of Circle and Coinbase, the closest public comparables

IXWhat could go wrong

Think about what most likely destroys the value. Not the SEC: that case is closed. The more likely harm is a long weak market for crypto. XRP fell from $3.65 to $1.25, a drop of about 66 percent¹⁵¹⁷. If the token stays weak, Ripple’s paper wealth shrinks and its ability to fund purchases with token sales shrinks with it.

What an owner can really take out. A holder of private shares can take money out only through tenders, a sale of the company or an IPO. The 2025 tender at $40 billion found few sellers⁹, which may mean holders thought the shares were worth more. That supports the price, but it also means we have no sign of what a real buyer would pay, because few trades happened. The March 2026 tender at $50 billion is an insider price set by the company, not an open-market price¹⁰. Its take-up is not public in the sources I opened.

What has to go right together. For $50 billion to be right on operating value alone, I think three things need to hold at once. One: revenue grows from $300 million to the $900 million target and keeps compounding at a high rate for years. Two: the market pays a premium multiple, above Coinbase and Circle at about 6 times²¹²². Three: the XRP stack is worth something near spot and can be sold without crushing the price. If I give each a rough one-in-two chance, which is my judgement and not a statistic, the combined chance is about one in eight. This is why I put my base case well below the price.

The next best alternative for the same dollar is a public stock with similar exposure. Coinbase and Circle are real companies with filings, daily prices and exit routes, and they trade at about 5.6 to 6.5 times revenue²¹²². Ripple’s price, at many times the revenue, needs a reason the extra risk is paid for. I could not find one in the public data.

Other risks. Acquisition integration: six large deals in about two years is a lot to absorb⁸. Credit: Ripple Prime lends to hedge funds, and a market break can hurt a prime broker quickly. Regulatory: GENIUS Act rules for stablecoins are still being implemented, per the Ripple release⁴. Concentration: a few large trading firms are both investors and customers⁸¹⁵. Disclosure: no audited financials are public, and Ripple’s sales of XRP are no longer reported¹⁷.